电动汽车革命掀起金属行业洗牌巨浪 石油将成帝国落日余晖?

1评论 2017-08-03 16:59:40 来源:上海有色网 如何判断星期六买点?

  SMM8月3日讯:从能源市场刮向基础设施的电动汽车革命之风,掀起了一场行业内的大洗牌,在这场全球最大的金属市场博弈中,最终也只能是成者为王败者为寇了。

  尽管像嘉能可这样的最大的多元化矿商辩称,煤炭、石油等化石燃料仍在能源供应方面发挥着关键作用,但它们本身在却享受着电动汽车的发展带来的福利,因电动汽车带来了更多钴、锂、、镍等金属的需求。

  今年,随着英国加入法国和挪威,宣布将在未来几十年禁止燃料汽车的销售,如此看来,绿色交通的前景更加明朗。加之不久前沃尔沃(Volvo AB)宣布放弃内燃机汽车的计划,特斯拉(Tesla inc .)又发布最新款,价位更平民的Model 3车型。因此,彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)预估,在未来20年内,新能源汽车的畅销程度将超过内燃机汽车。

  伦敦资本经济公司(Capital Economics Ltd.)的商品经济学家Simona Gambarini表示:“对一些金属来说,游戏规则已经彻底改变了。我们已经可看见对一些金属的巨大影响,比如钴、锂,这些金属价格在过去的几年里一直在飙升。”

  据嘉能可数据显示,电动汽车的铜需求大约是普通汽车的三倍,充电站对金属的需求更多。法国巴黎银行(Exane BNP Paribas)预计,到2025年,充电桩这类基础设施的需求将增加约5%。同时,电池所需的锂、钴、石墨、锰的需求也会增多。

  铜与钴

  根据Jefferies Group LLC的数据显示,嘉能可将受益于电动汽车的销量增长对铜价上涨的支撑,与此同时,它凭借目前的钴矿产量可以坐稳全球钴矿生产商龙头老大的宝座。另外,自由港麦克莫兰与第一量子也将此作为长期投资的最佳选择,以期望从这一趋势中获益。

  市场正在作出回应。LME钴价继2016年跃升37%之后,今年再攀升74%,锂价近年来也有所上涨。随着2017年全球经济复苏迹象显现(尤其是在中国迹象明显),铜价同比增15%。

  另一方面,生产商如回收SA和Campine SA则可能需要调整自身业务以适应新时代。铅的主要用途就是用于汽油和柴油发动机的起动电池。与此相对,电动汽车的动力来源是锂离子电池。

  美林美林银行金融市场研究主管Michael Widmer表示:“这对铅无疑是一个严重的打击,除非可以找到不同的应用途径来弥补需求的下降。”

  锂VS铅

  尽管今年铅价上涨17%,是LME基本金属中表现最好的,但投资者无法无视未来的风险。

  金属经纪公司Triland metals Ltd .的销售主管Herwig Schmidt表示:“我不太肯定事情会变得那么糟糕,因为廉价的油价将有助于保持传统汽车的竞争力。即使铅的需求下降,那也将是一个逐步实现的过程,也许需要10年左右的时间。”

  同时,更严格的排放规则可能会增加依赖先进铅蓄电池的混合动力汽车的需求,以应对发动机频繁的起停需求。

  不仅是电池和电线的使用领域在发生改变,像铝这样的轻质金属也正在取代钢铁,以使电动汽车用电更少,行驶更远。Widmer表示,从2013年到2016年,这一更替需求已经扩大约160万吨,占全球产出的2.7%,这一趋势还可能会进一步加剧。

  铝vs钢

  由于汽车制造商的使用需求日益增加,再加之中国的铝供应紧张局面打开供应缺口,铝价今年上涨了14%。

  钢铁制造商正在作出反击,AK钢铁控股(AK Steel Holding Corp.)与通用汽车公司(General Motors co .)合作,力图利用纳米技术制造轻型汽车车身。安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)和塔塔钢铁欧洲(Tata Steel Europe)也在合力开发更轻、更坚固的合金,以抵御竞争。

  法国巴黎银行(Exane BNP Paribas)分析师Sylvain Brunet表示:“超高强度钢的发展意味着欧洲已有一些卓有成效的案例。”

  铂金

  铂金可能也难以应对石油时代的结束。据顶级炼油商Johnson Matthey Plc的研究表示,去年贵金属有近一半被出售给汽车工业,用于汽车尾气净化催化剂以抑制柴油污染。

  伦敦Natixis SA的商品分析师Bernard Dahdah表示:“目前有大量需求的商品,如石油和铂金,未来可能不再有需求。

  “这并不意味着大宗商品市场的集体式微,而是预示,在未来15年内经过一轮重新洗牌后,重要的商品自会脱颖而出。”

  但铂金行业认为,柴油-混合动力发动机的变流器需求仍会维持。Umicore SA是一家生产电池和发动机催化剂的原材料生产商,该公司首席执行官Marc Grynberg周一表示,公司预计到2025年,混合动力车的销量仍将超过纯电动汽车。“考虑到电池成本的预期变化,购买混合动力车仍存优势。”

  据世界铂金投资委员会(World Platinum Investment Council)表示,丰田汽车公司和现代汽车公司联合开发的燃料电池汽车依靠铂金作为催化剂,从氢气产生能源,这为铂金未来十年的需求增长提供了最大的机遇。但在该技术得到商业效益证实之前,该行业已然要面临从化石燃料转移的风险。

  法国巴黎银行(Exane BNP Paribas) Brunet表示:“柴油似乎将成为此轮电动汽车洗牌中的最大输家。”

  德国汽车制造商正为柴油的未来而战,但在上月,斯图加特法院做出禁止在其家乡通行梅赛德斯-奔驰和保时捷柴油车的裁决,对德国汽企来讲,无疑是当头一棒。

  不过,或许电动汽车最直接的威胁是分析师的预测。从石油的构造转变到替代化石燃料的竞争性技术,汽车行业的需求前景从未如此混浊不清。

  (上海有色网 许慧梅翻译)

  原文如下:

  Electric-Car Revolution Is Shaking Up the Biggest Metals Markets

  By Mark Burton and Eddie van der Walt

  (Bloomberg) -- The revolution in electric vehicles set to upturn industries from energy to infrastructure is also creating winners and losers within the world’s biggest metals markets.

  While some of the largest diversified miners like Glencore Plc argue fossil fuels such as coal and oil still play a crucial role suPPlying energy needs, they’ll also benefit the most from a move to electric cars, requiring more cobalt, lithium, copper,aluminum and nickel.

  The outlook for greener transportation got a boost this year as the U.K. joined France and Norway in saying it would ban fossil-fuel car sales in coming decades. That’s as Volvo AB announced plans to abandon the combustion engine and Tesla Inc.unveiled its latest, cheaper Model 3. Such vehicles will outsell their petroleum-driven equivalents within two decades, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates.

  "For some of the metals, it’s a complete game changer," said Simona Gambarini, a commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. "We’ve already seen a big impact on some metals like cobalt and lithium, which have soared over the past couple of years."

  Electric cars contain about three times more copper than a regular vehicle, according to Glencore. Even more is needed for charging stations, with Exane BNP Paribas seeing such infrastructure adding about 5 percent to demand by 2025. Lithium, cobalt, graphite and manganese used in batteries will also see additional demand.

  Copper and Cobalt

  Glencore will get a boost as rising electric-vehicle sales lend support to copper prices, as well as from its position as the world’s largest cobalt producer, according to Jefferies Group LLC. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. are also top picks for long-term investors looking to benefit from the trend, the brokerage said in a note Tuesday.

  Markets are responding. Cobalt has surged 74 percent on the London Metal Exchange this year, after jumping 37 percent in 2016. Lithium prices have extended gains in recent years. Copper is also up 15 percent in 2017 on signs of resurgent economic growth, particularly in China.

  On the flipside, lead producers such as Recylex SA and Campine SA may need to adapt operations to the new era. The main end-use for lead is in starter batteries for petrol and diesel engines. Electric vehicles, by contrast, are powered by lithium-ion units.

  “It’s a serious risk for lead demand, unless you find different applications to make up for the decline,” said Michael Widmer, head of metals market research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

  Lithium vs Lead

  Yet with lead prices up 17 percent this year, the best of any major industrial metal traded in London, investors see only distant risks.

  "I’m not so sure things will turn out” so badly for lead, as cheap oil prices will help keep conventional cars competitive, said Herwig Schmidt, head of sales at metals brokerage Triland Metals Ltd. If demand for lead does drop, it will do so gradually, he said. “Maybe that will be the case in 10 years or so."

  In the meantime, stricter emissions rules could raise demand for hybrid cars that rely on advanced lead-intensive batteries to cope with frequent engine stops and starts, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

  It’s not just shifts in use of batteries and wires that are forcing change. Lightweight metals like aluminum are replacing steel to allow cars to travel further on less power. That already expanded demand by about 1.6 million metric tons, or 2.7 percent of global output, from 2013 to 2016 in a trend that’s likely to accelerate, Widmer said.

  Aluminum vs Steel

  Aluminum is up 14 percent this year as rising use by automakers has run into supply curbs in China, pushing the market into deficit.

  Steelmakers are fighting back. AK Steel Holding Corp. has teamed up with General Motors Co. to try to use nanotechnology to make lightweight vehicle bodies. ArcelorMittal and Tata Steel Europe are also among those developing lighter, stronger alloys to fend off the competition.

  "The development of ultra high-strength steel is meant to address that," said Sylvain Brunet, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas. There’s been "some success in Europe."

  Platinum may also struggle to cope with the end of petroleum.

  Almost half the precious metal used last year was sold to the auto industry for use in catalytic converters to curb diesel pollution, according to research from Johnson Matthey Plc, one of its top refiners.

  "A lot of commodities that are in demand right now, like oil and platinum, may not be in demand in the future," said Bernard Dahdah, a commodities analyst at Natixis SA in London.

  "It’s not that commodities overall will become less relevant, but we will see a reshuffling in terms of what is important in the next 15 years."

  The platinum industry sees a continued need for converters in diesel-hybrid engines. Umicore SA, a maker of raw materials for batteries and engine catalysts, expects hybrids to still outnumber full-electric cars in 2025, Chief Executive Officer Marc Grynberg said Monday.

  “Given the expected evolution of battery costs, there may still be an advantage to buying a hybrid,” he said.

  Fuel-cell vehicles being developed by Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. that rely on platinum as a catalyst to generate energy from hydrogen promise the greatest opportunity for demand growth in the next 10 years, according to the World Platinum Investment Council lobby.

  Yet, until such technology has been proven commercially, the industry is at risk from the shift away from fossil fuels.

  “Diesel looks set to be the clear loser out of this substitution towards electric vehicles,” said Brunet at Exane BNP Paribas.

  German carmakers, fighting for diesel’s future, faced a setback last month after a Stuttgart court ruled in favor of banning the technology in the home city of Mercedes-Benz and Porsche.

  Perhaps the most immediate danger from electric vehicles, though, is to analysts’ predictions. Given the tectonic shift away from oil and the competing technologies to replace the fossil fuel, the outlook for demand from the auto industry has never been so clouded.

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