房地产市场是未来铜需求市场的主要关注点

1评论 2017-11-15 14:04:03 来源:上海有色网 抢反弹必备短线战法

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SMM 11月15日讯:据一位有着29年经验(近期又打理由政府支持的新交易项目)的行业资深人士表示,中国房地产市场的低迷是近两年价上涨的最大风险。

  ASK Resources公司预计,明年中国精炼铜需求的增长将从2017年的3.5%下降至2.5%,该公司的首席执行官Stephen Huang在上周接受采访时说,这是因为全球最大铜消费国中国正在加大对房地产市场的调控力度。

  “建筑行业是中国铜需求的最大贡献者,” Huang在上海的办公室说,“基础设施建设仍在继续,但住房行业现在已转变话风。”

  尽管如此,由于北美和欧洲情况改善,以及在2020年东京奥运会之前日本可能削减出口,交易员依然对价格持谨慎态度。截至目前2017年LME铜价已涨逾20%,该公司预计,明年铜价将保持相对平稳。

  9月,新房销售实现了2014年以来的首次同比下降。“楼市进入低迷期,” ASK公司的董事总经理Levi Zou表示,“市场多认为经济的低迷将会持续下去。这将是明年中国铜需求的一个问号,也是市场的一大担忧”。

  (上海有色网 闫雪松 翻译自彭博社)

  



原文如下:

  China CoPPer Trader Flags Property Slowdown as Major Concern (1)

  2017-11-14 03:40:29.842 GMT

  By Bloomberg News

  (Bloomberg) -- The downturn in China’s property market is the biggest risk to a near two-year rally in copper prices, according to a new state-backed trading venture run by a 29-year industry veteran.

  Shanghai-based ASK Resources Ltd. expects growth in China’s refined copper demand to ease next year to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent in 2017, as the world’s biggest user of the metal tightens property curbs to leech excess leverage from its economy, Chief Executive Officer Stephen Huang said in an interview last week.

  “Construction, housing are the biggest contributors to China’s copper demand,” Huang said at ASK’s offices in Shanghai.

  “Infrastructure building is still there, but the housing sector is a different story now. It is relatively contained.”

  Still, the trader remains cautiously optimistic on prices because of improving conditions in North America and Europe and probable cuts to Japanese exports ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. It expects prices to remain relatively flat next year, after a 25 percent rally so far in 2017.

  Construction constitutes more than 40 percent of China’s demand for the metal used in pipes and wires, and the nation in turn accounts for about half the world’s total. September saw new home sales post their first year-on-year decline since 2014.

  “The property market has entered into a downturn, ASK’s managing director, Levi Zou, said in the interview. “People are saying the downturn will be as long as the upturn. It’s definitely putting a question mark on China’s copper demand next year, and it’s a big concern to the market.”

  CEO Huang and the municipal government of Wuxi in Jiangsu province set up the trading company two months ago, after Huang left Arc Resources Co., a copper trader in Hong Kong that he’d founded in 2010. Huang began his career in the industry at the derivatives unit of French bank Credit Lyonnais in 1988.

  Zou said he sees copper in London averaging between $6,700 and $6,800 a metric ton in 2018, after Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, raised the premium it charges to deliver metal to European customers for the first time in four years, amid signs manufacturing is strengthening in the region.

  That’s not far from a current level of $6,886 a ton and above an average this year of around $6,105 a ton. The metal has rallied from a seven-year low of $4,318 hit in January 2016 due to supply disruptions and improved demand in China.

“There won’t be any more massive builds of new houses,”said Huang. “While the Chinese economy will grow in a stable way, some aspects will slow down the nation’s copper demand and offset the potential global supply deficit.”

  



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